Recent form betting filter: last N results rate

What the recent results rate filter does

The filter takes a side's last N matches, counts how many ended with your chosen result metric, win, draw, loss, non-win, non-draw or non-loss, and turns it into a rate between 0 and 1. You then require that rate to sit inside a min and max band. A max of 100 percent expresses a pure floor, for example "won at least 70 percent of the last 10". The side can be home, away, or the semantic favorite or underdog.

Why a rate beats a streak

A result streak breaks the moment one result interrupts it: a team that won nine of its last ten but lost the most recent match shows no streak at all, yet its form is excellent. The rate view is more robust, because it tolerates isolated noise and captures the underlying trend. It also lets you express weak form precisely: "won at most 20 percent of the last 10" describes a slumping team no streak definition can catch.

Example strategies

• Back home teams that won at least 60 percent of their last 10 when priced above 2.00, hunting spots where the market lags recent form.
• Fade favorites whose last 10 matches show a win rate under 40 percent: market reputation propping up a team in real decline.

Combining it with other filters

Form rates get sharper with context. Add an odds range so the rate is always read against a price, combine with head-to-head result rate to check the form holds against this specific opponent, or use goals average to verify the results are backed by scoring substance rather than one-goal luck. This is a Pro filter.

Every form threshold you can imagine is one click from a verdict: run it through backtesting on years of Pinnacle historical odds. Define your rate band and backtest it in the Strategy Builder now.