Follow one team betting strategy, backtested

Betting your own team is usually a leak; testing your own team is free. This template shows the simplest possible filter: keep only matches involving one specific club and see how the market has priced it over the years in soccer.

How the filter tree works

• Team name: only matches where one side is Real Madrid pass the filter. Swap the name for any club you like.

That is the whole tree, which makes it a clean sandbox for learning how the builder works.

What to watch

• One team plays roughly 40 to 60 matches a season, so samples stay tiny. Multi-year backtests are mandatory before reading anything into the results.
• Big clubs are heavily bet and sharply priced. Finding value on a famous name is harder, not easier.
• Results are team-specific by construction. Nothing here generalizes to other clubs.

Tweaks to try

• Add an odds range to only follow the team as favorite, or only as underdog.
• Add a day-of-week or month filter to isolate specific contexts.
• Duplicate the strategy for a rival and compare the two curves.

This is a learning template, not an edge. Confirm any pattern in backtesting on Pinnacle closing odds first.