Over 2.5 goals betting strategy, backtested

The over 2.5 market does not care who scores, only that goals arrive. So instead of measuring a team's attack or defense separately, this template measures the thing you actually bet on: how often that team's matches produce three or more total goals.

How the filter tree works

• Scoring rate: on the total-goals dimension, the home team's matches must have reached 3 or more goals in at least 60% of its last 20 games, at all venues.

It is a frequency filter, not an average, which makes it robust to a single 6-0 result inflating the numbers.

What to watch

• The market watches the same stat. Teams famous for overs get shorter over prices, so the edge must survive the price, not just the frequency.
• 60% of 20 games is 12 matches. One or two results move the rate, so teams drift in and out of the filter.
• Overs lose in bursts when a team tightens up under a new coach. Watch for regime changes.

Tweaks to try

• Raise the threshold to 70% for true goal machines.
• Apply the same filter to the away side too, doubling the signal.
• Add an odds range on the over 2.5 to control the prices you take.

Frequency is not profit. Prove the difference in backtesting on Pinnacle closing odds for soccer.