NFL and college football betting backtesting

What you can backtest in American football

Pinnacle quotes American football as a 2-way sport: rare tied games settle the moneyline as a push. On five years of closing odds you can test:

• Moneyline on either team
• Point spreads on a key-number ladder from -14 to +14, including 3, 7 and 10
• Game totals from 37.5 to 55.5 points, plus main-line team totals

Key numbers rule this sport: margins land on 3 and 7 far more than anywhere else, and integer spreads settle as a void on a push, which the simulator handles exactly like the book would. See how backtesting works on real Pinnacle historical odds.

Filters that shine for football

• Odds range and implied probability around key spreads like -2.5, -3.5, -6.5 and -7.5
• League standing, standing gap and season phase for playoff-race motivation
• Team form, streaks and head-to-head records

Popular football angles

Common systems include home underdogs getting more than a field goal, unders in high-total college games, fading big favorites late in the season, and NFL divisional dogs. Browse public strategies for ideas and start building for free.